By Alfred C. Morley
Banks, thrifts, insurance firms, and securities businesses have skilled upheavals. even supposing possibilities exist to achieve from picking winners, program of straightforward monetary ratios to financial institution assertion research might be deceptive. This lawsuits teaches the paintings of realizing the fundamental analytical components of every quarter.
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_ Conclusion Tremendous misvaluations exist among 800 publicly traded banks and thrifts, but you must be willing to examine the full range of companies to identify value opportunities. I guarantee that at least for the next five years, until the marketplace reaches full throttle and until enough participants understand the valuation process, these misvaluations will continue. 37 Table 4. Portfolio Results of Long and Short Bank candidates Company State As of 09/04/91 Price/ Economic Value Price Price as of 11/15/91 Percent Change in Price Return on Investment Annualized Retumon Investment Long candidates Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
Nagle: Prior experience, particularly with subdebt of financial institutions, is that it is an all or Table 6. e. Ferguson & Co. nothing experience. Tremendous opportunities existed in the thrift industry just a couple of years ago, because investors in subordinated debt did not realize that with financial institutions, you do not get 70 cents back on the dollar. You either get it all or you get nothing. Question: Peer groups for banks always seem to be based on asset size. Is this the best way to select a peer group in today's society, or should we choose some other basis such as business concentration?
In looking at the Northeastern banks, I notice that of those with a lot of real estate problems, a fair number also had surprising stabilization or a slight decline in nonperformers. They are placing a lot of emphasis on controlling the nonperforming asset number and being able to record a lower number. I think that is making people a little too sanguine about what is going to happen in the real estate markets generally. Management Quality mainly correlated with the size of the bank. The number of options granted is correlated with the size of the bank; the price action matters little because each year more options are granted at current market.